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gandolfication

We Need A New Economic System to Reckon with Automation

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A law school friend of mine sent me a CNBC article about artificial intelligence replacing attorneys. This is actually nothing new but it prompted me found out a little post that's been percolating in my mind for a while now and when I thought I would share here as it is relevant to so many of our predicaments relating to depression and work.

 

We Need A New Economic System to Reckon with Automation

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14 minutes ago, Teddy545 said:

Maybe if robots take over no one would have to work anymore and everything would be free. :P

Would be nice but my guess is that it'll go the other way. Automation will generate more money for those who own the means of production/services while the rest will struggle to survive. We'll be competing with both AI and cheap 3rd world labor so income will likely drop for all but the smartest people. In some European countries they're playing around with the idea of a universal basic income but that's only feasible in rich socialist countries like Finland, most capitalistic countries will fight this idea and poorer countries just can't afford it in the first place. The future looks rather bleak to me, I'm counting on ever increasing wealth inequality and at some point that'll lead to social unrest and/or wars before things calm down again. 

It's truly scary considering that we're already at a disadvantage given our mental health... 

Edited by lonelyforeigner

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Gandolf,

I agree that it's disturbing - and honestly it's just another layer of issues, as I see it.  What I mean is that we were already dealing with companies using 'the economy' as an excuse to not pay fairly, provide healthcare benefits, cut hours, and such.  Then we have ageism, racism, favoritism, etc., that come into play.  We have outsourcing/offshoring that's affected a great many people (myself included).  Difficulty completing in freelance work, versus those in India who will do a job for $3/hour.  Indeed, automation adds another pile of issues.  We have a heck of a mighty problem on our hands, and realistically more to come down the pike.  I have no idea what's going to become of us.  Apologies if that sounds negative; it's the 'truth' as I see it.

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Hi gandolf I love when you make these type of threads lol i love talking about the future. Automation will be a huge problem in the next couple of decades, things like self driving cars, improved automation, better Ai,will take many of the jobs we have today especially from third world countries alot of immigration from 3rd world countries to first world countries is causing alot of civil unrest all ready and I predict it will get much much worse in addition to automation taking away jobs from people in third world countries, climate change is expecting to effect third world countries the worst places like the middle east, parts of India and Africa are expected to get so hot over the next 50 years they will become uninhabitable .

There will be a massive influx of refugees from these places that could cause revolutions and alot of wars in the future, my fear is eventually tensions will get so bad in the future that a nuclear exchange will take place between third world nations. It is essential that we prepare for the humanitarian crisis that will befall ous in the future, we will need to have a universal basic income or our society will collapse in the next 50 years. Everyday I hope the world doesn't collapse like it is but each year things get worse and worse, I remember reading a book assigned in international politics class a book that predicted alot of this i think it was the clash of civilizations but it talked about in one of the chapters the rise of nationalistic isolationist forms of government will cause tensions to boil over and cause all these small proxy wars we have now, I read the book 8 years ago and what I learned in that class has been frighteningly accurate. 

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43 minutes ago, lonelyforeigner said:

Would be nice but my guess is that it'll go the other way. Automation will generate more money for those who own the means of production/services while the rest will struggle to survive. We'll be competing with both AI and cheap 3rd world labor so income will likely drop for all but the smartest people. In some European countries they're playing around with the idea of a universal basic income but that's only feasible in rich socialist countries like Finland, most capitalistic countries will fight this idea and poorer countries just can't afford it in the first place. The future looks rather bleak to me, I'm counting on ever increasing wealth inequality and at some point that'll lead to social unrest and/or wars before things calm down again. 

It's truly scary considering that we're already at a disadvantage given our mental health... 

That seems to be exactly what Marx predicted would happen.

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1 minute ago, Teddy545 said:

@lonelyforeigner  I was joking, wishing life was more like Star Trek. 

Makes me think of the TNG episode with Samuel Clemens where he cynically questions how the future can work if it's not about obtaining wealth :) Wish the future could be like Star Trek but I don't see how human nature will change that quickly, even if everything you ever wanted could be replicated at will there will still be some resources that are gonna be scarce (i.e. land or a good location) which will lead to people fighting over them. We may adapt at some point in the future if civilization doesn't destroy itself but it'll probably take 1000s of years for evolution to catch up with our new environment. 

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1 hour ago, Teddy545 said:

Maybe if robots take over no one would have to work anymore and everything would be free. :P

This is one optimistic theory that one of my colleagues has a spouse to me. I have to confess I don't see it given what we have always observed that human nature but as the Fantasy I entertainment it.

 

A lot of interesting responses hear from very thoughtful people.

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@lonelyforeigner. Here's a different view on human evolution in the future. From the movie Waking Life.

If we're looking at the highlights of human development, you have to look at the evolution of the organism and then at the development of its interaction with the environment. Evolution of the organism will begin with the evolution of life perceived through the hominid coming to the evolution of mankind. Neanderthal and Cro-Magnon man. Now, interestingly, what you're looking at here are three strings: biological, anthropological -- development of the cities -- and cultural, which is human expression.

Now, what you've seen here is the evolution of populations, not so much the evolution of individuals. And in addition, if you look at the time scales that are involved here -- two billion years for life, six million years for the hominid, 100,000 years for mankind as we know it -- you're beginning to see the telescoping nature of the evolutionary paradigm. And then when you get to agricultural, when you get to scientific revolution and industrial revolution, you're looking at 10,000 years, 400 years, 150 years. You're seeing a further telescoping of this evolutionary time. What that means is that as we go through the new evolution, it's gonna telescope to the point we should be able to see it manifest itself within our lifetime, within this generation.

The new evolution stems from information, and it stems from two types of information: digital and analog. The digital is artificial intelligence. The analog results from molecular biology, the cloning of the organism. And you knit the two together with neurobiology. Before on the old evolutionary paradigm, one would die and the other would grow and dominate. But under the new paradigm, they would exist as a mutually supportive, noncompetitive grouping. Okay, independent from the external.

And what is interesting here is that evolution now becomes an individually centered process, emanating from the needs and desires of the individual, and not an external process, a passive process where the individual is just at the whim of the collective. So, you produce a neo-human, okay, with a new individuality and a new consciousness. But that's only the beginning of the evolutionary cycle because as the next cycle proceeds, the input is now this new intelligence. As intelligence piles on intelligence, as ability piles on ability, the speed changes. Until what? Until we reach a crescendo in a way could be imagined as an enormous instantaneous fulfillment of human? human and neo-human potential. It could be something totally different. It could be the amplification of the individual, the multiplication of individual existences. Parallel existences now with the individual no longer restricted by time and space.

And the manifestations of this neo-human-type evolution, manifestations could be dramatically counter-intuitive. That's the interesting part. The old evolution is cold. It's sterile. It's efficient, okay? And its manifestations of those social adaptations. We're talking about parasitism, dominance, morality, okay? Uh, war, predation, these would be subject to de-emphasis. These will be subject to de-evolution. The new evolutionary paradigm will give us the human traits of truth, of loyalty, of justice, of freedom. These will be the manifestations of the new evolution. And that is what we would hope to see from this. That would be nice.

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On 18/02/2017 at 6:02 AM, bohemian_artist said:

Gandolf,

I agree that it's disturbing - and honestly it's just another layer of issues, as I see it.  What I mean is that we were already dealing with companies using 'the economy' as an excuse to not pay fairly, provide healthcare benefits, cut hours, and such.  Then we have ageism, racism, favoritism, etc., that come into play.  We have outsourcing/offshoring that's affected a great many people (myself included).  Difficulty completing in freelance work, versus those in India who will do a job for $3/hour.  Indeed, automation adds another pile of issues.  We have a heck of a mighty problem on our hands, and realistically more to come down the pike.  I have no idea what's going to become of us.  Apologies if that sounds negative; it's the 'truth' as I see it.

I would tend to agree.

I think the global socio-economical state of the world will get a hell of a lot worse before it will get any better. I doubt I'll see it getting better during the time I have left on this planet.

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I don't know if a fundamentally different economic system is necessary. We'll see what the future brings. Besides, Trump could always pull the US out of the WTO to impose his ridiculous tariffs and send the global economy into chaos like his crazy trade policy adviser advocates. That'll slow the tide of automation.

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2 hours ago, Mattastic said:

I don't know if a fundamentally different economic system is necessary. We'll see what the future brings. Besides, Trump could always pull the US out of the WTO to impose his ridiculous tariffs and send the global economy into chaos like his crazy trade policy adviser advocates. That'll slow the tide of automation.

Trump's chaos seems small ball compared to this.  We're really talking about SkyNet like systems and such.  All the articles.im reading are agreeing that the next few years (usually 10-20) robot or machine automation will definitely take over approx 40% of current jobs from humans, maybe more, and then oy creating 2-5% new human jobs.  The math won't add up and this would be Devestator on a scale we've never before seen.  Could make the Geat Depression look like a holiday.

 

I don't think Trump's going to be able to do much to slow the tide of Automation, and even if he did I still see a glaring even desperate need for a fundamentally new system of Economics. Already right now in 4 years so many have been left behind and more everyday.  Automation surely will continue to accelerate this and we need to be prepared in many ways. 

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10 hours ago, imaman said:

@lonelyforeigner. Here's a different view on human evolution in the future. From the movie Waking Life.

If we're looking at the highlights of human development, you have to look at the evolution of the organism and then at the development of its interaction with the environment. Evolution of the organism will begin with the evolution of life perceived through the hominid coming to the evolution of mankind. Neanderthal and Cro-Magnon man. Now, interestingly, what you're looking at here are three strings: biological, anthropological -- development of the cities -- and cultural, which is human expression.

Now, what you've seen here is the evolution of populations, not so much the evolution of individuals. And in addition, if you look at the time scales that are involved here -- two billion years for life, six million years for the hominid, 100,000 years for mankind as we know it -- you're beginning to see the telescoping nature of the evolutionary paradigm. And then when you get to agricultural, when you get to scientific revolution and industrial revolution, you're looking at 10,000 years, 400 years, 150 years. You're seeing a further telescoping of this evolutionary time. What that means is that as we go through the new evolution, it's gonna telescope to the point we should be able to see it manifest itself within our lifetime, within this generation.

The new evolution stems from information, and it stems from two types of information: digital and analog. The digital is artificial intelligence. The analog results from molecular biology, the cloning of the organism. And you knit the two together with neurobiology. Before on the old evolutionary paradigm, one would die and the other would grow and dominate. But under the new paradigm, they would exist as a mutually supportive, noncompetitive grouping. Okay, independent from the external.

And what is interesting here is that evolution now becomes an individually centered process, emanating from the needs and desires of the individual, and not an external process, a passive process where the individual is just at the whim of the collective. So, you produce a neo-human, okay, with a new individuality and a new consciousness. But that's only the beginning of the evolutionary cycle because as the next cycle proceeds, the input is now this new intelligence. As intelligence piles on intelligence, as ability piles on ability, the speed changes. Until what? Until we reach a crescendo in a way could be imagined as an enormous instantaneous fulfillment of human? human and neo-human potential. It could be something totally different. It could be the amplification of the individual, the multiplication of individual existences. Parallel existences now with the individual no longer restricted by time and space.

And the manifestations of this neo-human-type evolution, manifestations could be dramatically counter-intuitive. That's the interesting part. The old evolution is cold. It's sterile. It's efficient, okay? And its manifestations of those social adaptations. We're talking about parasitism, dominance, morality, okay? Uh, war, predation, these would be subject to de-emphasis. These will be subject to de-evolution. The new evolutionary paradigm will give us the human traits of truth, of loyalty, of justice, of freedom. These will be the manifestations of the new evolution. And that is what we would hope to see from this. That would be nice.

I loved the Waking Life and it is my greatest hope in life that we will continue to evolve and in fact accelerate the pace at which we evolve for the good and that maybe that acceleration is really coming to a head soon in our lifetimes.

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3 hours ago, gandolfication said:

Trump's chaos seems small ball compared to this.  We're really talking about SkyNet like systems and such.  All the articles.im reading are agreeing that the next few years (usually 10-20) robot or machine automation will definitely take over approx 40% of current jobs from humans, maybe more, and then oy creating 2-5% new human jobs.  The math won't add up and this would be Devestator on a scale we've never before seen.  Could make the Geat Depression look like a holiday.

 

I don't think Trump's going to be able to do much to slow the tide of Automation, and even if he did I still see a glaring even desperate need for a fundamentally new system of Economics. Already right now in 4 years so many have been left behind and more everyday.  Automation surely will continue to accelerate this and we need to be prepared in many ways. 

We can't forget about automation of the military im pretty sure the drone program the military uses is literally called skynet. 

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Maybe in the future humanity and the planet will be faced with a huge single threat that will force us to come together or we will be extinct. Something like a comet threat that forces countries to work together and ends up being the catalyst for world peace and co operation if we survive. That d be kinda cool

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4 hours ago, CoolCat7 said:

Unfortunately I, too, take a dim view of the future, which is partly why I don't have children. We don't need to look at the Third World to see the tremendous suffering of people in the bottom levels of the socio-economic scale.  I've lived in poverty most of my life, and I've still had it easy (financially) compared to many receiving welfare or disability, or working for minimum wage.  

The growing gap between the rich and the poor is the phenomenon I find most disturbing out of all the issues in our world.  I really need to "accept the things I cannot change" while still trying to do what little I can.

The back of my rusty old minivan sports the bumper sticker, "Politics isn't right vs left, it's top vs bottom". It's only taken me 40 years to realize that. :)

I do everything I can to help people out in daily life. The greedy psychos who grab the positions of power will continue to do that, just as they have for millennia, inflicting massive suffering and carnage. I guess our job is to minimize the effects as much as possible. I don't know how to stop them, unfortunately

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2 hours ago, jay89 said:

Maybe in the future humanity and the planet will be faced with a huge single threat that will force us to come together or we will be extinct. Something like a comet threat that forces countries to work together and ends up being the catalyst for world peace and co operation if we survive. That d be kinda cool

You're kind of assuming a lot of credit here but I appreciate the optimism

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Or how about a cluster of comets that could only be destroyed by our  nuclear weapons arsenal. Alot of comets that over a period of time would eventually depletes all countries of nuclear capability. Maybe this would start a series of events that would contribute to world peace.   

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23 minutes ago, jay89 said:

Or how about a cluster of comets that could only be destroyed by our  nuclear weapons arsenal. Alot of comets that over a period of time would eventually depletes all countries of nuclear capability. Maybe this would start a series of events that would contribute to world peace.   

nah we will probably start fighting over who destroyed the most comets and who is the most peaceful lol

Edited by scienceguy

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