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[Forum Admin]

10/12/05-BANGKOK, Thailand
Bird Flu Pandemic Risk 'Very High'
HHS secretary Mike Leavitt dips his feet in disinfectant after visiting a chicken farm in Thailand on Tuesday.
HHS secretary Mike Leavitt dips his feet in disinfectant after visiting a chicken farm in Thailand on Tuesday.

The likelihood of a human flu pandemic is very high, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt said as he began a tour of Southeast Asia to coordinate plans to combat bird flu.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has swept through poultry populations in many parts of Asia since 2003 and jumped to humans, ******* 60 people, mostly through direct contact with sick fowl.

While there have been no known cases of person-to-person transmission, World Health Organization officials and other experts have been warning that the virus could mutate into a form that spreads easily among people. In a worst-case scenario, they say millions of people could die.

Three influenza pandemics have occurred over the last century and "the likelihood of another is very high, some say even certain," Leavitt said Monday after meeting with Thai health officials to review the country's preparations against the disease.

"Whether or not H5N1 is the virus that will ultimately trigger such a pandemic is unknown to us," he told a news conference.

"The probability is uncertain. But the warning signs are troubling. Hence we are responding in a robust way."

Leavitt, accompanied by the director of WHO and other top health professionals, also plans to visit Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam to prepare for the anticipated public health emergency.

His tour comes after U.S. President George W. Bush last month established the "International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza" to coordinate a global strategy against bird flu and other types of influenza.

Leavitt said "containment" was the first line of defense against the illness, encouraging countries to step up development and production of vaccines and strengthen efforts to detect any cases of human-to-human transmission early.

"Anywhere, the sooner we know, the faster we can respond and the more lives that will be saved," he said.

Thai Public Health Minister Suchai Charoenratanakul said Thailand would contribute at least 5 percent of its antiviral drug supplies to a proposed Southeast Asian regional stockpile.

So far, 41 people have died of bird flu in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand, four in Cambodia and three in Indonesia. Leavitt said he would also visit Indonesia at a date to be announced.

World Heath Organization Director General Dr. Lee Jong-wook said preparation was the key to preventing a flu epidemic such as the one that struck in 1918, ******* an estimated 40 million to 50 million people.

"Now we know in advance what is happening and we have to prepare ourselves. That is our duty," he said.

SOURCE:- 2005 The Associated Press.

[Forum Admin]

U.N. seeks to speed up bird flu vaccine
Romanian health workers handle domestic birds in the eastern village of Ceamurlia de Jos, Romania Tuesday Oct. 11 2005. In Romania, where the country's first suspected bird flu cases were reported Friday, some 40,000 birds were to be slaughtered in coming days and authorities were giving thousands of people a standard flu vaccine to prevent them from getting human flu. Expert laboratories have not confirmed bird flu, let alone the presence of the H5N1 strain that experts are tracking for fear it could mutate to become a dangerous human virus Romanian health workers handle domestic birds in the eastern village of Ceamurlia de Jos, Romania Tuesday Oct. 11 2005. In Romania, where the country's first suspected bird flu cases were reported Friday, some 40,000 birds were to be slaughtered in coming days and authorities were giving thousands of people a standard flu vaccine to prevent them from getting human flu. Expert laboratories have not confirmed bird flu, let alone the presence of the H5N1 strain that experts are tracking for fear it could mutate to become a dangerous human virus (AP Photo)

By Frances D'Emilio, Associated Press Writer | October 11, 2005

ROME --U.N. officials said Tuesday they are exploring ways to step up the production of a vaccine in case bird flu mutates and sparks a human flu pandemic.



David Nabarro, the U.N. coordinator for avian and human influenza, said it will take six months to build up a stockpile of vaccines, but health authorities are worried that amount of time might be too long if a pandemic flu strain emerges.

"We will need to have vaccines much more quickly than six months," Nabarro said, adding that the World Health Organization and governments are exploring how to "pull together vaccine manufacturers" to see if it can be done more quickly.

"The World Health Organization as we speak is looking at options to get a scaling up of vaccine production capacity," Nabarro said.

For the virus to become a global threat, it would have to mutate into a form that spreads easily from person to person. Efforts to create an effective vaccine are limited until that strain emerges.

However, some countries are preparing a vaccine based on the most common bird flu virus circulating, partly to help them speed up the research so that a human vaccine can be produced more quickly and in larger quantities once the strain emerges.

Last week, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said "no one in the world is ready" for a catastrophic outbreak of bird flu and President Bush summoned vaccine manufacturers to the White House to discuss the situation.

Speaking Tuesday on NBC's "Today" show, Bush expressed confidence that the government would develop a plan "to handle a major outbreak" if bird flu spreads to the United States.

In Rome, U.N. experts briefed journalists at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization about the global bird influenza situation.

The head of the agency, Jacques Diouf, said the growing international concern is gratifying, but earlier mobilization to prevent the deadly disease would have been better.

"Everybody is rushing now, and we're happy and we're very pleased that action is being taken at the highest political level," said Jacques Diouf, director-general of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.

But, "we're in ... October 2005. Our (agency) first team went to the three front-line countries -- Thailand, Vietnam, China -- in January, February, 2004," Diouf told The Associated Press in an interview.

He said the international community began to act only when bird flu reached Kazakhstan and Russia over the summer.

Turkey and Romania culled thousands of birds Monday as a precaution after suspecting bird flu in their flocks.

There is no confirmation that birds in Romania and Bulgaria, which is located on the Black Sea between Romania and Turkey, have been infected, U.N. officials said.

Samples from Turkey are on their way to London for definitive testing and results are expected in a few days.

Louise Fresco, an agriculture official at the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization, said that the U.N. agencies would be seeking $175 million -- "a fraction of what is needed" -- for initial efforts aimed at combatting the problem.

Among the first to pledge funds, Fresco said, have been Japan, Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States, Australia and the European Union.

It is rare for people to contract bird flu, and most cases have occurred in poultry workers.

Since the outbreak began in 2003 in Asia, the virus has infected 117 people and killed 60, according to the official toll kept by the World Health Organization.

"Once it affects humans it has a very high mortality rate of 50 percent," said Samuel C. Jutzi, director of animal production and health division at the Food and Agriculture Organization.

Assuming a limited supply of vaccines is available, authorities would have to ration who receives them, with those on the front lines of combatting any pandemic likely to get the priority.

But Nabarro raised the question of how to define "front line," saying that in addition to health care workers, it could also mean those helping to keep basic functions going for society and the economy, such as those power and water supplies.
SOURCE:- 2005 Associated Press.

[Sheepwoman]

I have been following bird flu via news topics. President Bush says the US is not prepared for a possible outbreak in the US. In fact, the drug manufacturers in the US do not produce enough flu injections for all Americans each year. Many Americans cannot get flu shots every year and suffer with the flu. This creates a loss of manpower in many companies that equates to loss of production and possible higher prices to the general public. The big word here is IF the bird flu mutates to a human form, the US will not have enough protection for all Americans. I find this a sad situation for all Americans as well as the world nations.

I have chickens; therefore, I am more vigilant with my flock. The largest infection for chickens here is Newcastle disease. Not too many years ago it decimated the largest county in America for egg production. 5,000 chickens across the street from me had to be destroyed because of Newcastle. I can only imagine what bird flu would do to the egg and food industry in America and if it mutates for the citizens of our great country.

Yes, I am concerned if bird flu migrates to the US. Iit would be diasterous for all.

[Sheepwoman]

I found one of my hens dead this morning when I went out to feed. The State Agriculture Dept. is sending someone out to pick up the hen and test the rest of my flock. Cross your fingers for me.

[an unquiet mind]

SW Let us know what you find out about the hen, please!

Cat So far, the birds are passing the flu on to humans. But, so far, a human has not passed it to another human (unless they are just not telling us).

[Sheepwoman]

I have another sick chicken. I also received a call from the Federal Avian Health dept. They wanted to pick up the chicken, too. So both the state & the feds are involved. I should be getting a preliminary report in a few days, then an interim and a final report in 2 weeks. If the chicken I separated from the flock dies, I know there is a problem.

I did learn a lot about avian illnesses. There is an avian influenza that's been around a long time. It was actually brought in when ring necked pheasants were brought in from China. This bird flu in Asia is a variant of the avian flu that affects flocks here.

I will let you all know what happens.
Sheepwoman

[aka Puma]

That is the 64,000 dollar question, Cat, because vaccince to flus, or flues, or influenzas are made by eggs, or with eggs. They can't make a vaccine to the avian flu because the bird flu kills the egg making it useless as a vaccine. As far as vaccines go. Another reason why there are not enough of them is because pharmacuitical multinationals make no profit off them. This is a little bit of information Mr Bush left out of his Rose Garden Speech on Bird Flu.
I got a flu shot. Two years ago I got a flu shot and found out later it was for the wrong flu. The whole country got the wrong shot. When I got the flu, it turned into pnuemonia. I went through two cycles of antibiotics and was sick for over a month.
I'm tired of living in fear: Terrorists, SARS, AIDS and now, the flu. I'm so sick of it all.
I hope your chickens are all right, SW.

[an unquiet mind]

Dang......you're smart, D!!!!!